Anyone who traveled a lot and was mobile was probably a pandemic driver during the first corona wave. Researchers now expect a similar development for the next wave in the fall.
Scientists from Rostock analyzed the socio-economic factors of the spread of the coronavirus in different regions during the first two Pandemic– Waves tested. The results could now also give insight into the corona wave in the fall.
What have scientists studied?
In the study, factors in the spread of the coronavirus include education, income, health, mobility, age and gender.
Scientists assessed data from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) on more than 200,000 Covid diagnoses that were made between January 1 and July 23, 2020.
How did the 2020 coronavirus spread?
“Our results show that the first Covid-19The wave started as a disease in the wealthier rural areas of southern Germany and only spread to poorer urban and rural areas during the first wave,” explains Gabriele Doblhammer, head of the study. She directs the chair of sociology and demography in Rostock.
The height impact in counties with low socioeconomic status, according to the study, from the second lockdown-Even more pronounced period. Scientists cite as a possible reason that wealthier counties seemed to be better protected.
These conclusions are also supported by the fact that after the first lockdown, the hotspots mainly occurred in slaughterhouses and among temporary workers in the fruit and vegetable sector. Working conditions and lack of home office options could be to blame.
According to the results of the study, the overall spread of the pandemic was initially determined by parts of the population with high mobility – for example, by holidays. And that then shifted to the so-called systemically important and vulnerable groups such as nurses and the elderly.
What does the study say about future corona waves?
According to Daniel Kreft, who participated in the research as a so-called postdoc, the team transferred established algorithms from machine learning to the social sciences. Their results could also be used in the future to predict the spread of corona.
Overall, researchers expect a similar pandemic situation for the fall as at the start of the year corona crisis in the spring of 2020. According to this, those with a higher socio-economic level could be infected first, for example because they travel more. The wave then spreads mainly to the socially weakest part of the population. Scientists initially did not know how high the number of infections will be or how previous vaccinations or infections affect development.
For the actual development of the pandemic next fall, it is also crucial which corona variants are still to come and how they behave.
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