The fight for the $40,000 mark continues

Bitcoin (BTC): Price recovery after a turbulent Easter weekend

BTC rate: $41,324 (previous day: $38,550)

Short-term resistances/objectives: $40,870, $41,581, $42,258, $42,735, $43,330, $43,735, $44,853/$45,087, $46,196/$46,521

Short-term supports: $40,122, $39,567, $39,227, $38,250, $37,227, $36,381

Daily Bitcoin Forecast:

  • After a turbulent weekend, Bitcoin price is able to recover from its all-time low of $38,550 and is currently repricing above key support in the $39,300 area.
  • The weekend saw a bullish retest of the purple downtrend line that was broken on April 15th. The rally above the mid-low of $39,567 then caused the price to jump significantly north to currently hit $40,781.
  • Further upside potential appears if the cross resistance is recovered at $40,870.
  • Bulls should attempt to target and break through the turquoise resistance zone between $41,581 and $42,110 to ward off the looming threat of a sell-off.
  • The contracting Bollinger Bands on the 1-hour chart are currently indicating a break, which also coincides with the overbought RSI indicator.

Bullish scenario:

  • Bitcoin can currently recover the cross resistance of the 23 Fibonacci retracement and the horizontal resistance at 40,870 USD. Bitcoin price is also trading north of the EMA200 (blue). If the stabilization above this is successful, the upper Bollinger band ($41,216) will also be waiting in the area of ​​the daily high on the way to the April 13th intermediate high at $41,581.
  • The next directional decision is waiting to break out in the area of ​​USD 42,258 at the latest. Here, the trailing edge from the previous week is associated with the 38 Fibonacci retracement.
  • A break of this resistance is unlikely on Tuesday.
  • If Bitcoin stabilizes above the turquoise zone in the coming trading days, further price targets will be activated at $42,735 and especially at the multiple resistance zone at $43,330. In addition to the all-time high from April 11, the 50 Fibonacci retracement of the current move can also be found here. This is where the first profit taking should take place.

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The upward movement should extend

  • Only when the bulls can generate enough buying momentum to retake this area of ​​strong long-term resistance will the next major target area between $43,735 and $44,237 capture investors’ attention. This is where the red downtrend line is, from the all-time high at $48,242.
  • A southerly bounce is very likely on the first climb attempt.
  • If the price of Bitcoin breaks through the blue resistance zone, a preliminary decision will be made in the yellow resistance zone.
  • Between USD 44,853 and USD 45,087 further resistance from the sellers is to be expected.
  • A breakout of this zone will activate the next target zone between $46,196 and $46,521.
  • In addition to two important horizontal resistance lines, the 78 Fibonacci retracement can also be found here.
  • Only when this zone can be breached in a sustainable manner will the maximum target range for this trading week between $46,196 and $46,521 be the focus of investors’ concerns.
  • As described in the last analysis, the area around the monthly high represents the maximum increase target for the next few trading days.

Downside scenario:

  • Bitcoin price occasionally slipped below the strong support at $39,300 over the weekend. However, the bears wasted their chance to directly continue the southward trend.
  • The relevant target price of $38,250 was narrowly missed, but the setback can still be seen as working through this support level.
  • As long as the sell side can cap the BTC price in the turquoise zone, further price consolidation is on the cards.
  • A further indication of weakness would be a return below the EMA50 (orange).
  • Bitcoin is already well secured in the psychological range of USD 40,000. In addition to the horizontal support, the super trend and the lower Bollinger Band can also be found here.
  • The breakout from $39,567 would significantly increase the likelihood of a further correction to the low at $39,227.

Back to last week’s low

  • If Bitcoin breaks through this price mark again at the hourly close, a retest of the weekly low at $38,550 is likely.
  • Once again, a fight between bulls and bears is to be expected. The buying side must defend the supporting green zone.
  • A breakout from the $38,550/$38,250 would leave Bitcoin breaking straight off the lower edge of the range at $37,227.
  • If the bulls remain abstinent here as well, the corrective move will amplify towards USD 36,381. In the short term, this price mark represents the maximum bearish price target for this trading week.

Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not represent buy or sell recommendations. They are only an evaluation by the analyst.

The images in the chart were created using TradingView created.

USD/EUR exchange rate at time of writing: 0.92 EUR.

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