Regional elections in Schleswig-Holstein: CDU increases lead according to poll

On May 8, the people of Schleswig-Holstein will elect their new regional parliament. We have compiled the most important information and news about the regional elections for you.

CDU extends lead according to poll in Schleswig-Holstein

Thursday, April 21, 8:32 a.m.: According to a poll, just over two weeks before the regional elections in Schleswig-Holstein, the CDU is further ahead and has even increased its lead. Prime Minister Daniel Günther’s party now has 38%, according to the survey published Thursday by Infratest dimap on behalf of Norddeutscher Rundfunk. This corresponds to an increase of two percentage points compared to the survey at the end of March.

According to the survey, 20% of those eligible to vote would still choose the SPD. The Greens come in at 16% (down two percentage points), and the FDP gains one percentage point and is now at 9%. The AfD remains at 6%, the Association of Voters of South Schleswig (SSW), which is exempt from the 5% clause, at 4%.

Günther can currently hope to continue to govern with a single partner – according to the poll, the CDU and the Greens would have a safe majority. A coalition with the FDP would also be possible. A so-called Jamaican alliance of the CDU, Greens and FDP currently governs in Kiel. The state parliament will be re-elected on May 8.

According to the poll, voters in the North still want to see Daniel Günther as head of state government. 76% are satisfied with their work (plus two percentage points). This makes the politician Germany’s most popular prime minister.

SPD attacks Günther harshly over state election video in Schleswig-Holstein

Wednesday, April 20, 11 a.m.: A mini-sequence in the CDU’s election campaign video is currently causing a stir within the SPD in Schleswig-Holstein. CDU Minister President and Head of State Daniel Günther can be seen for a good second with two policewomen. SPD State Chairwoman Serpil Midyatli considers the participation of civil servants during their working hours a flagrant violation of the Neutrality Law.

For them, the fault lies solely with the current Prime Minister, Daniel Günther. She strongly attacks the CDU politician and sees his actions as a serious breach of duty of care. Midyatli relies on the Interior Ministry’s response. “According to police information, a request was made by the state chairman of the Christian Democratic Union to the aforementioned department for the named shooting on February 18, 2022 in Eckernförde (Police station Eckernförde, gerichtstraße 4, 24340 Eckernförde )”, he says. “The shooting took place with the consent of the police officers and the head of the authority during office hours.”

You can read more about the SPD attack here.

The first televised trill of the best candidates will take place today

Wednesday, April 20, 8:15 a.m.: The top candidates from the CDU, SPD and Greens for the May 8 regional elections in Schleswig-Holstein will meet on Wednesday for the first trial. The debate with Prime Minister Daniel Günther (CDU), Thomas Losse-Müller (SPD) and Monika Heinold (Greens) will be broadcast at 6 p.m. on RTL Nord. The program is recorded in the Molfsee open-air museum.

Günther, who has been prime minister since 2017, and Heinold, finance minister, have been politically active in the country for years and are known to many voters. Losse-Müller was head of the state chancellery of former Prime Minister Torsten Albig (SPD) and most recently worked for a consulting company. In a head-to-head comparison of the top three contenders, he was still far behind at the end of March.

The fact that Schleswig-Holstein’s first election trill is taking place on RTL Nord is a great pleasure for the broadcaster, said Jan Bulig, editor-in-chief of RTL Nord. “Our goal is to give the citizens of our Land a new impetus for their decision a little less than three weeks before the elections.” – Rental Kiel.

Another meeting of top candidates is scheduled for April 26. Then the NDR invites you to the Triell on the Norway quay in the state capital.

Current polls put the CDU in the lead in Schleswig-Holstein

The CDU leadership sees the regional elections in Schleswig-Holstein and North Rhine-Westphalia in May as an opportunity to counter the traffic light coalition at the federal level with a counterweight from the Union. “These regional elections are also important for Germany in order to ensure a bourgeois corrective to the Bundesrat at the federal level,” CDU General Secretary Mario Czaja told the German Press Agency in Berlin. After the Saarland elections, lost with a bang, at the end of March, the elections in Schleswig-Holstein on May 8 and in North Rhine-Westphalia on May 15 should be the first real test of the mood for the promised new CDU start by new party leader Friedrich Merz.

In Schleswig-Holstein, CDU Prime Minister Daniel Günther (Schleswig-Holstein) wants to defend his government power. And there is also a good chance of winning the election, Czaja said. This is also confirmed by the results of the current survey. Because five good weeks before the regional elections in Schleswig-Holstein, the CDU has further widened its lead. In an Infratest dimap poll at the end of March, the CDU was ahead of the voters. The party won 36% on the “Sunday question”, the SPD 20% and the Greens 18%. With such a result, the continuation of the current Jamaican coalition of CDU, Greens and FDP would be possible. The FDP ended up with 8% in the survey. The Jamaican alliance currently in place gets the most approval with 40%.

Other coalitions would also be possible. With this result, the CDU in Kiel could also govern alone with the Greens and without the Liberals. According to the poll, a green-black alliance continues to garner the approval of 37% of those eligible to vote.

Acting Prime Minister Günther remains very popular

“As with all state elections, these are also primarily state political matters,” Czaja stressed. Above all, the federal leadership of the CDU also saw these other specific reasons for the failure of the CDU in Saarland. At the time, Merz vehemently rejected allegations that the federal party had not sufficiently supported CDU Prime Minister Tobias Hans, who was removed from office there, in regional elections in Saarland. However, Czaja conceded: “Of course it is also important for us as a party that the two prime ministers can continue their work. And there’s all the support we can give.”

At least according to current polls, things are looking good for outgoing Prime Minister Daniel Günther at the moment. According to the survey, support for a union-led state government is also based on its popularity – around three-quarters of voters (74%) are currently satisfied with its work. This means that Günther is still at the top in terms of politicians’ satisfaction in a nationwide Infratest comparison. The leading candidate of the Greens, Monika Heinold, convinced 41% of the voters (plus four percentage points), the SPD challenger Thomas Losse-Müller was assessed positively by 15% (plus two percentage points).

Infratest dimap interviewed 1,158 eligible voters in Schleswig-Holstein by phone or online for the March 24-29 survey. The survey’s margin of error is between two and three percentage points.

The Wahl-O-Mat for the Schleswig-Holstein regional elections is now online

If you still don’t know which party to vote for on May 8, you can get help from Wahl-O-Mat. 38 theses deal with the most important topics of state policy. Ultimately, the extent to which his own views match the party’s election manifestos is revealed.

Theses for the election were selected by young people and first-time voters as well as employees of the State Commissioner for Political Education, the Federal Agency for Political Education and political experts from State.

Surf tip: Wahl-O-Mat Schleswig-Holstein regional elections now online: who are you voting for?

These are Schleswig-Holstein’s best candidates

The best candidates of the parties represented in the state parliament:

  • Daniel Gunther, CDU
  • Thomas Losse-Müller, SPD
  • Monika Heinold, Greens
  • Bernd Buchholz, FDP
  • Jörg Nobis, AfD
  • Lars Harms, SSW

Parties that are not represented in the state parliament but have established state lists that have been approved by the state election commission

  • Left, Susanne Spethmann
  • Free Voters, Gregor Voht
  • Animal Welfare Party, Janine Bahr van Gemmert
  • Pirate Party, Mark Hintz
  • the base
  • The party
  • Future.SH
  • health research
  • Humanists
  • volt

Parties not represented in the state parliament must submit 1,000 supporting signatures to participate.

This is how the electoral system works in Schleswig-Holstein

  • About 2.3 million eligible voters
  • The legal voting age is 16. Anyone wishing to apply must be at least 18 years old
  • German citizenship is a prerequisite for being able to vote
  • At the first vote, a direct candidate is elected. The second vote is given for a state list and decides the electoral result in percentage of a party

After an election by relative majority, at least 35 of the 69 seats are allocated in the first round. At least the remaining 34 seats are allocated to national party lists based on the results of the second vote. The five percent hurdle applies to the election, with the exception of the Voters’ Association of South Schleswig (SSW). This represents the Danish minority and the Frisians.