Key support at $39,300 as a springboard

Daily Bitcoin Forecast:

• Bitcoin joined the price rally in the classic financial market today and was able to break above the resistance at $40,870 to $41,110 currently at the time of writing.
• The bulls repeatedly defended key support around yesterday’s low and temporarily staved off the looming danger of a further southerly trend.
• The bulging Bollinger Bands on the 1-hour chart indicate a possible rally in price towards the cross resistance of the turquoise resistance zone and the purple downtrend line at $42,001.
• This scenario also coincides with the resistance areas identified from the daily chart.

Bullish scenario:

• After retesting yesterday’s daily low, Bitcoin is currently trying to head towards $42,001.
• The EMA50 (orange) at $40,379 and the cross resist at $40,870 have already been taken over.
• If Bitcoin sustainably stabilizes above the purple support zone, BTC price should start the turquoise zone in the $42,000 area in the next leg. This resistance is of increased importance in small as well as in large units of time.

• In addition, there is now also a price-limiting downtrend line (purple) in this area, the breach of which generates additional upside potential.
• In the short term, however, Bitcoin appears to be overbought with an RSI reading of 68. However, as long as the price of BTC stabilizes above $40,870 per hour, the bulls will initiate another attempt higher.
• If Bitcoin price breaks above $42,001 at the hourly closing price and then also breaks above the EMA200 (blue) at $42,287, Bitcoin will continue to rise towards $42,735.
• On the first attempt, Bitcoin will fail at the 38 Fibonacci retracement cross resistance and horizontal resistance.

The recovery is taking shape

• Only when the bulls can generate enough buying momentum over the next few trading days to sustainably reclaim this area will the next big target area between $43,735 and $44,237 capture investors’ attention.
• First profit taking is likely here. Therefore, short-term oriented investors should secure their position with a stop loss.
• If the Bitcoin price then bites into this zone and sustainably overcomes the blue resistance zone, a preliminary decision for the following trading days is made in the yellow resistance zone.
• This horizontal resistance of the red downtrend line and golden pocket between $44,798 and $45,087 is unlikely to be overcome on the first try.

• If the Nasdaq Tech Index also rallies more significantly, the likelihood of the key cryptocurrency breaking out towards the bullish target zone between $46,196 and $46,521 increases.
• In addition to two important horizontal resistance lines, the 78 Fibonacci retracement also works here.
• If Bitcoin can also break through this zone dynamically and climb back above $46,521, a move up into the orange resistance zone is a possibility.
• The area around the monthly high continues to represent the maximum increase target for the next few trading days.

Downside scenario:

• The sell side failed again just before yesterday’s close in an attempt to undermine strong support at $39,300. However, this should come as no surprise after the bearish wave of the previous days.
• The fact that the Nasdaq is currently around 1.5 percentage points above yesterday’s daily close price makes it twice as difficult for bears to immediately aim for the next relevant price target at $38,250.
• However, as long as Bitcoin seller’s stock can top out in the $42,001 area, another selloff is possible at any time.

Downward consolidation may continue

• A first indication of weakness would be a further drop below the EMA50 (orange).
• This price weakness would further solidify on a break of $39,766.
• The likelihood of a further correction down to the $39,227 low would once again increase significantly.
• If Bitcoin then breaks through yesterday’s daily low at the hourly close, the bears will sell the BTC price down to $38,250.
• Expect another fight between bulls and bears here. The buy side knows the relevance of the green support zone.

• A breakout of $38,250 would take Bitcoin straight to the bottom of the range at $37,227.
• If the bulls don’t hold here either, the chart picture continues to darken in favor of the bears. Bitcoin is likely to fall as low as $36,381.
• Here, Bitcoin must turn north in order to maintain the possibility of further bullish price movement.

Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not represent buy or sell recommendations, but merely an analyst’s assessment.

The images in the chart were created using TradingView created.

USD/EUR exchange rate at time of writing: 0.92 EUR.