Is the battle for the $40,000 prize lost?

Bitcoin (BTC): The correction in the financial markets puts the price of Bitcoin under pressure

BTC rate: $38,551 (previous day: $37,703)

Short-term resistances/objectives: $39,322, $39,854, $40,019/$40,190, $40,851, $41,729, $42,258, $42,972, $43,330, $43,735, $44,216, $44,853/45,087 $, $46,196/$46,521

Short-term supports: $38,591, $38,250, $37,703, $37,227, $36,381

Reasons for Bitcoin price weakness:

  • The price of bitcoin also fell significantly during a selloff by the US technology index Nasdaq. Missed sales and profit forecasts after the release of the latest quarterly figures from major tech companies such as Google and Microsoft further reinforced this trend.
  • Bitcoin temporarily fell back into the green support zone between $37,228 and $38,591 and marked a new 30-day low at $37,703.
  • The formation of a new monthly low for Bitcoin caused many small investors to panic sell yesterday afternoon. Over 10,000 BTC were sent to crypto exchanges and sold within hours, adding to the inconvenience.
  • Another factor is the continued strength of the US dollar. It is likely to widen further following the recent announcement of stronger interest rate hikes. The DXY dollar index then marked a new 2-year high this week.
  • This outperformance also leads to a significant drop in the price of all other assets traded against the US dollar. Gold and silver precious metal prices, as well as the euro/US dollar currency pair, also came under significant pressure. The euro rate is historically low, not far from the rate of issue when the euro was introduced 20 years ago.
  • The fact that interest rates on US government bonds continue to rise at the same time and that institutional investors are threatening to move into risky asset classes is also having a negative effect on the evolution of bond prices. bitcoins.
  • A bright spot for bulls is the massive sell-off of bitcoins by retail investors. Retail investors collectively sold over 10,000 bitcoins on various crypto exchanges yesterday Tuesday. This “capitulation” of small investors has repeatedly marked a reversal of the trend in the past.

Bullish Scenario (BTC):

  • After a weak start to the week, Bitcoin was able to join the technical counter move in the classic financial market in the final trading hours, but it has already bounced south off the EMA50 (orange).
  • The bulls must now do all they can to drive the price of BTC back through the EMA50 and the supertrend above USD 39,567 by the end of the hour. The upper Bollinger Band in the hourly chart is also currently operating at this resistance level.
  • If this price level can be regained in the long term and the EMA200 (blue) at $39,854 is also overcome, the lower edge of the purple resistance zone will return to the point. Here is the 23 Fibonacci retracement of the current corrective move.
  • If this zone is broken, there will be a first short-term directional move in the area of ​​yesterday’s daily high at $40,851.
  • If stabilization above this is successful, a follow-up move to the 38 Fibonacci retracement at $41,729 is likely. A jump above this resistance activates the cross resistance of the horizontal line and the red downtrend line as the next upside target.

First sign of a possible stabilization

  • Stabilization above USD 42,258 is not to be expected on Wednesday. The previous week’s high is also associated with the 50 Fibonacci retracement at $42,972. A rebound is to be expected here at the latest.
  • If, contrary to expectations, Bitcoin also sustainably jumps above this resistance cluster and then breaks above $43,330, the chart picture will brighten for a short time.
  • The bulls will do everything in their power to push Bitcoin all the way to the 61st Fibonacci retracement at $44,216.
  • Once again, investors are likely to make more profits.
  • If the price of Bitcoin breaks through the blue resistance zone, a preliminary decision will be made in the yellow resistance zone.
  • Between USD 44,853 and USD 45,087 further resistance from the sellers is to be expected.
  • A break above this zone resets the maximum bullish price target for the next few trading days to between $46,196 and $46,521 in the eyes of investors.
  • The area around the monthly high remains the maximum target for Bitcoin.

Bearish Scenario (BTC):

  • Since the last price analysis on April 19, Bitcoin has corrected into the green support zone. Although the key cryptocurrency is recovering somewhat from this selloff, as long as the $39,322 mark is not recovered in the long term, a relapse to the weekly low of $37,703 is possible at any time.
  • If this price mark is retested, another fight between bulls and bears can be expected.
  • If Bitcoin breaks below the overnight low of $37,703 per hour and the lower edge of the green support zone is broken, the sell-off extends to the maximum short-term correction target of $36,381. Initially, a break below this support level is not to be expected.
  • If the course correction in global financial markets continues to expand in the period ahead, Bitcoin could fall back to $34,437 or even the year low of $32,941 in the medium term.

Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not represent buy or sell recommendations, but merely an analyst’s assessment.

The images in the chart were created using TradingView created.

USD/EUR exchange rate at time of writing: 0.94 EUR.

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