Bitcoin (BTC) will soar to an astronomical price of US$1 million by 2030, as one of the most senior crypto experts predicts given the current global economic situation.
That expert is Arthur Hayes, an economist and former CEO of influential crypto trading platform BitMEX, who predicts a sharp rise in the price of bitcoin and gold in his blog post on Medium this week.
In the end, will only Bitcoin and gold benefit?
In this regard, Hayes initially states that the massive financial sanctions imposed on Russia during the war in Ukraine will have far-reaching effects on the future development of world politics and the world economy.
Although the United States and the European Union (EU) apparently want to ensure more stability with their desired independence from Russian energy imports, this step will harm the “West” in the long run and, in turn , will drive Bitcoin to all-time highs, as the former BitMEX boss believes.
Behind this lies a complex interplay of influencing factors pushed to the extreme by the war and the measures taken. Inflation in Western countries was already at an all-time high for 40 years before the conflict in Ukraine and is only accelerating with the sanctions.
China would be afraid of being hit by arbitrary financial sanctions from the West at some point. According to Hayes, the danger alone should prompt a rethinking of the Middle Kingdom.
Explanation: Since the 1990s, the country has benefited from a constant cycle in which China sells goods to the West at low prices and receives the respective foreign currencies in return. The massive foreign trade surplus is therefore in foreign national currencies, which now have to be invested elsewhere.
Inflation, altered supply chains (due to war), and the risk of being hit by sanctions change the omens for China in this environment. Since a complete conversion of its own economic model is out of the question, the central government must find other answers.
“It’s impossible for China to just sell trillions of dollars and euros without destroying the global financial system, which would hit the West and China hard,” Hayes said. The economist explains:
“The lesser harm China would do would be simply not to reinvest maturing government bonds in the Western financial system. In addition, state-owned banks will pull out of Western equities and real estate as much as possible without harming the market.
Another part of this response could be Beijing moving to “storable assets, gold and bitcoin.” While unlikely on a large scale, it could still give the market-leading cryptocurrency a noticeable boost.
Bitcoin will hit $1 million by 2030?
Another favorable factor for Bitcoin price, according to Hayes, is the situation the West is maneuvering into, especially Europe.
Since complete independence from Russia cannot be achieved overnight, the European idea would be in serious trouble.
Strong economic nations like Germany would then have to help their weaker neighbors all the more, which means that their own competitiveness against China will continue to suffer.
“The European Central Bank (ECB) is in a dilemma, because the EU is finished and we will be trading liras, drachmas and German marks again in the next decade”, as Hayes paints the horror scenario possible on the wall. no less dystopian at:
“If the Union dissolves, money will be printed in large quantities in various national currencies. It could even lead to hyperinflation. And once European savers understand what is happening, they will flee to hedge funds like gold and bitcoin. The collapse of the EU = Bitcoin price of $1 million.
The fact that the United States will most likely try the monetary policy instrument of yield curve control (YCC), i.e. government bond yield curve control, could also contribute. to this astronomical price target of US$1 million for Bitcoin.
As a result, Hayes also predicts a massive increase in the price of gold up to US$20,000 per ounce.
However, the crypto expert asks Bitcoin investors to take action so that the cryptocurrency network continues to grow and does not lose its added value in the meantime.
“The vicious economic cycle of this situation will take bitcoin to $1 million and gold to $10,000-20,000 by the end of the decade. In doing so, we must encourage nation states to save their surpluses. bitcoin export so that the bitcoin economy can establish itself around the world. Unlike gold, bitcoin must be moved to prevent the network from collapsing,” warns Hayes.
Finally he adds:
“However, we shouldn’t be angry with those countries who just don’t want to learn after we tell them the good news. As our Lord God Satoshi once said, “Forgive them, for they do not know what they are doing.”
As Cointelegraph reported, Hayes is well known for his bold predictions, with the crypto expert already declaring a seven-figure Bitcoin price in March.
Analyst Alex Krüger therefore puts a damper on the fun by retorting that some of the arguments of the former boss of BitMEX are exaggerated.
“His blog post leaves readers with the mentality of hardened gold investors who believe at all times that the world is coming to an end,” he said. Kruger. According to this, Hayes: “Put together facts and exaggerate beyond measure to make his story appear like the most likely scenario.
After all, the critic concedes: “The US Federal Reserve will loosen the reins again at some point, which will also trigger a new uptrend. [für Bitcoin] will initiate.”
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