Bitcoin (BTC) and most major altcoins have been relatively quiet over the holiday season so far. This suggests that cryptocurrency traders are not making big bets during the US stock market shutdown period. This could be due to the close correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 and the uncertainty surrounding the performance of the stock market over the next week.
While some analysts expect near-term weakness, others believe Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase and the majority of the upside from the four-year halving cycle may still be ahead. Josh Olszewicz, head of research at alternative wealth manager Valkyrie, said: “Interesting. Maybe we haven’t seen an explosive top because it didn’t exist before.”
The price of Bitcoin has not moved much in recent days. On the other hand, some altcoins that might be listed on Coinbase have seen strong trends. The rest of the crypto market, on the other hand, is still waiting for new triggers that will lead to trend movement.
Can we expect a change of direction for Bitcoin and altcoins in the coming days? Let’s look at the top 5 cryptocurrencies.
The April 16th intraday candle pattern suggests indecision among bulls and bears. Small beach days are usually followed by beach widening. But it is difficult to predict the direction.
If the price breaks above $41,000, the bulls will attempt to push BTC/USDT above the 20-day EMA at $42,085. If successful, the pair could rise above the resistance at the 200-day SMA at $48,136 and then the rising channel resistance.
The downward sloping 20-day EMA and the RSI floating in negative territory suggest a slight edge for the bears.
If the price declines and falls below $39,200, the selling may intensify. The pair could then fall back to the support of the channel. A breakdown and close below this support could extend the decline to $32,917.
The 4-hour chart shows the price at the 20-EMA. This suggests that the bulls are attempting a comeback. If the price clears the resistance between the 50-day SMA and $41,561, the pair could rally towards the 200-day SMA. Bears are likely to strongly defend this area.
This bullish scenario will be invalidated if the price declines from its current levels and breaks below $39,200. The pair could then continue its correction and drop to the strong support at $37,000.
Ripple (XRP) bounced off the strong support at $0.69. This indicates demand at lower levels. The bulls were able to move the price above the 50-day SMA at $0.78 on April 15, but failed to sustain the uptrend. On the positive side, the bulls are trying to hold the price above the 20-day EMA at $0.77.
The flat 20-day EMA and the RSI near the midpoint suggest a balance between supply and demand. This balance will shift in favor of the bulls if XRP/USDT rises and breaks $0.80. This could propel the pair towards the 200-day SMA at $0.88 and then towards the strong resistance at $0.91.
On the other hand, if the price slips below the 20-day EMA and holds below it, it will indicate that the bears are selling at the higher levels. The sellers will then attempt to sink the pair towards the strong support at $0.69.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the bears are aggressively defending the resistance at the 200-day SMA, but failed to push the pair down below the 20-day EMA. This suggests that bulls are also buying on smaller dips.
If the buyers push the price above the 200-day SMA, the bullish momentum could intensify. The pair could then rally to $0.85 where the bears will mount a strong defense. Lower, a breakout and close below the 20-day EMA could invalidate the short-term bullish scenario and send the pair towards the 50-day SMA.
Chainlink (LINK) broke above the downtrend line on March 30, but the bulls failed to hold the higher levels. After selling at $18, the price fell back below the downtrend line. On the bright side, buyers bought the low at $13.50 and are now attempting a higher low.
The first sign of strength would be a break above the 20-day EMA). Such an increase would indicate that the bears are losing influence. LINK/USDT could then rise to $16 and later test the $18 resistance. A break and close above this resistance could trigger a rally towards the 200-day SMA at $21.
However, if the price declines from the 20-day EMA, the bears will attempt to drive the price below the critical support at $12.50. A dip and close below this level could signal a continuation of the downtrend.
The pair has climbed above the downtrend line on the 4-hour chart and the 20-day EMA and 50-day SMA are on the verge of a bullish cross. This suggests that the bulls are attempting a comeback.
If the price holds above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rally to $16. There, the bears will once again mount a strong defense. The bullish momentum could strengthen if the bulls manage to clear this resistance.
On the other hand, if the price declines and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will indicate a strong sell-off at higher levels. The bears will then attempt to drop the pair below $13.50.
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Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has been trying to bottom out for a few days. The price rose sharply on April 13 and above the 20-day EMA at $339. Although the bulls failed to extend the uptrend further, it is positive that they did not allow the price to pull back below the 50-day SMA at $32.
The 20-day EMA is a bit sloping and the RSI is above 53, indicating a slight advantage for the bulls. If the buyers push the price above $354, the bullish move may resume and BCH/USDT may rise above the $395 resistance.
The bears will likely defend this level very strongly. If the price drops from $395, the range could hold for a few more days.
If the price declines and breaks below the 50-day SMA, the bears will attempt to sink the pair towards the strong support at $259.
The 4-hour chart shows the pair mounting a strong rally from $290 to $353. This may have tempted short-term traders to take profits. On the positive side, the bulls did not allow the price to drop below the 20-day EMA. This suggests sentiment remains positive and traders are buying on the dips.
The 20-day EMA is sloping and the RSI is in positive territory, suggesting that the buyers have the upper hand. If the price breaks above $354, the rally to $380 could then extend to $395.
Filecoin (FIL) has been in a downtrend and in a range. The bulls are attempting a bottom and the price has consolidated between $16.50 and $27 for the past few days.
The 20-day EMA at $21 and the 50-day SMA at $20 are stable and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand.
If the bulls can hold the price above the 20-day EMA, a rally towards the $27 resistance will increase. Bulls need to move the price above this level and hold it to signal a new uptrend.
This bullish scenario will be invalidated in the short term if the price falls below the 50-day SMA. The bears will then attempt to sink FIL/USDT towards the strong support at $16.50. A dip and close below this level will indicate a continuation of the downtrend.
The bears are defending the resistance at $22. On the bright side, the bulls did not allow the price to drop below the 200-day SMA. If the price breaches the $22-$23 resistance from its current levels, the bullish momentum could increase and the pair could rally towards $27.
The 20-day EMA and 50-day SMA have made a bullish cross and the RSI is in positive territory. This indicates an advantage for buyers. This bullish scenario will be invalidated in the short term if the price declines and falls below the 200-day SMA.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and transaction involves risk and you should do your research before making a decision.