The US Dollar Index (DXY) reversed its 20-year high yesterday, April 29, after a long rally, but failed to boost Bitcoin (BTC) and the stock market despite the inverse correlation. The stock market is actually under selling pressure, with online retailer Amazon set to accept its heaviest daily loss since 2014. Against the backdrop of current austerity measures by the US central bank, which are significantly weakening commodities risky investments.
If Bitcoin’s retracement continues, analysts at Whalemap fear that the price target could extend to $25,000-$27,000. After all, this would probably be the best buying opportunity to shove again.
As a result, long-term investors appear undeterred by Bitcoin’s weakness, as evidenced by data from CryptoQuant, which shows Bitcoin’s combined wealth across the 21 largest crypto exchanges is currently at its lowest since September 2018. .
But this HODL mentality isn’t just evident among Bitcoin investors, as a CoinGecko study of non-fungible tokens (NFTs) reveals that more than 50% of NFT owners want to keep their digital crypto collectibles, to benefit from a future increase in value. In this context, the study indicates that the Metaverse could reach a market value of 800 billion US dollars within two years.
Can bitcoin and altcoins finally stop the current weak flight? Let’s take a look at the market!
Bitcoin managed to return to the exponential moving average (EMA) at $40,363 on April 28, but the long wick of the daily candle shows that the bears are immediately selling the rally.
The sloping 20-day EMA and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 41 points suggest further downside at this time. If the bears can drive the price below the ascending channel support, the decline in BTC/USDT should extend to $34,300 or even $32,917.
To avoid this negative scenario, buyers need to push bitcoin price back above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $41,981. If successful, it will revert back to the 200-day SMA at $47,433, all the more likely. Here at the latest, however, a strong headwind should be expected again.
Ethereum (ETH) was able to rally back to the 20-day EMA at $2,991 over the past two days, but the bulls failed to push the price back above that level. This shows that sentiment remains negative and rallies are immediately sold out.
The bears will now attempt to push the price back towards the uptrend line, and the bulls must defend this support lest the ascending triangle as a price pattern becomes obsolete. This could send ETH/USDT as low as $2,450.
However, this negative scenario is parried as Ethereum price rises and breaks above the 50-day SMA at $3,405. This strength could attract new investors and allow another rally to the 200-day SMA at $3,464. A deal above this mark would likely even herald a new uptrend.
Avalanche (AVAX) returned to the $65 support. The bulls have successfully defended this support twice, so there are high hopes that the downturn can once again be halted.
The bears have other plans, of course, and the 20-day EMA down to $74 and the RSI near the oversold zone work in their favour. If the Avalanche rate slips below $65, another crash is likely to the important support at $51.
On the other hand, if AVAX/USDT can be caught at $65, a bounce towards the 20-day EMA is likely. If the price slows down again here, the probability of a drop to $65 increases.
It is imperative that the bulls push Avalanche price back above the 20-day EMA to wrest control from the bears. Then, a rally towards the 200-day SMA at $85 would be within the realm of possibility.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every stage of investing and trading involves risk. Research well before making a decision.
Market data comes from HitBTC-stock Exchange.
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